@monolith_fund

Prediction Markets Weekly Open Interest: @Kalshi — $1B (+20%) @Polymarket — $535M (+10%) @predictdotfun — $17.5M (+68%) @HyperliquidX — $11.9M (+78%) @opinionlabsxyz — $5.6M (-13%) @SX_Bet — $1.8M (+29%) @trylimitless — $827K (+11%) Kalshi is the clear winner this week. $1B OI, strongest World Cup positioning, football partnerships, Messi angle, and consistent public proof of growth. @predictdotfun keeps growing fast too, helped by the biggest World Cup rewards campaign in the space. HIP-4 grew from $6.7M to $11.9M in a week and is now getting very close to @predictdotfun. The World Cup is becoming the first real liquidity test for prediction markets.

hyperliquid:native just printed a new ATH and flipped Solana. The driver was $SPCX. Hyperliquid’s SpaceX perp surged to ~$227 after the IPO and reached ~$1.4B in daily trading volume. One synthetic stock market generated ~30% of HIP-3 volume. At the same time, hyperliquid:native gained ~12%, adding roughly $1.7B in market cap. Hyperliquid is becoming the venue for IPO / pre-IPO price discovery on crypto infrastructure. $SPCX was the first big proof. Next ones will be watched even closer.

Top 5 Perp DEX by dominance (last 7D): @HyperliquidX — 37.4% @Aster_DEX — 8.4% @Lighter_xyz — 6.4% @edgeX_exchange — 3.9% @variational_io — 3.5% All top 5 are down this week, likely as market attention shifts to the World Cup. But @edgeX_exchange dropped the most, only a few dozen active traders are left. Their X page is quite too. So is edgeX slowly fading out? Meanwhile, @variational_io keeps gaining ground and is already top 3 by OI.

Hyperliquid’s pre-IPO market was right again 1. $SPCX IPO priced at $135 2. Pre-IPO perp traded $176–183 into the open 3. Stock opened $150 (+11%) and pumped nearly +30% intraday to ~$177 Same as $CBRS Wall Street is starting to pay attention CNBC running the Hyperliquid chart live this morning The only platform that keeps getting it right Hyperliquid.

Kalshi is the clear OI leader at the World Cup kickoff. $900M OI vs Polymarket’s $500M. Almost 2x bigger. And it looks like this came from the right prep: a $1M campaign, strong sports focus, Timothée Chalamet collab, and perfect timing before the biggest sports event of the year. Growth in just a few days: Kalshi — $900M (+8%) Polymarket — $500M (+3%) Predict Fun — $17M (+64%) HIP-4 — $7M (+4%) But the main “World Cup Winner?” market looks very different: @Polymarket — $2.1B @Kalshi — $183M (?) @predictdotfun — $272M Reported volume is not fully apples-to-apples across platforms, since platforms may count contracts, shares, notional value and traded value differently. But Kalshi still leads by total OI, while Polymarket shows much stronger reported activity Interesting to see what happens after the World Cup ends. Feels like a very hot season for prediction markets.