19
@AdamBLiv
Adam Livingston
Skipped detailed analysis: Personal account of a Bitcoin analyst/author/advisor — not a project, protocol, token, or dApp.
AI Analysisneutral
Confidence
30%
Skipped detailed analysis: Personal account of a Bitcoin analyst/author/advisor — not a project, protocol, token, or dApp.
Recent tweetsSee all on 𝕏 →
The fiat economy is just everyone Venmoing each other increasingly insane amounts of money for the same deteriorating services until one day a ham sandwich costs $47 and your bank app says “good job staying on budget.”
I will be buying Bitcoin in the ruins.
As a long term shareholder of MSTR, I personally would love to see them get the STRC machine back up and running and use the STRC proceeds to retire debt as quickly as possible.
If they raise $2B and use every dollar to retire debt...
Debt falls by $2B. Preferred rises by $2B.
Total senior claim stays the same.
$6.71B debt
$15.48B preferred
$22.19B total senior claim
$51.19B BTC NAV
43.4% amplification ratio
After $2B STRC-for-debt swap:
$4.71B debt
$17.48B preferred
$22.19B total senior claim
Same 43.4% amplification ratio
Common holders keep the same BTC amplification, but the capital stack gets cleaner.
Debt/BTC NAV drops from 13.1% to 9.2%.
Hard debt gets replaced with preferred capital.
Maturity pressure goes down, refinancing risk goes down.
The Bitcoin stack stays intact. This is exactly the move to appease S&P. GET RID OF THE DEBT.
Not “more leverage.” Better leverage. AMPLIFICATION.
Strategy should do this aggressively.
I don’t need a beach house.
I need overnight frozen department stocking at Walmart, a dented thermos full of gas station coffee, one earbud playing Saylor interviews, and enough weekly Bitcoin buys to make my family quietly ask if I’ve joined a financial cult.
Let's run the boring version of the Strive ($ASST) bull case.
No new shares. No additional Bitcoin bought. No premium re-rating.
Just the balance sheet that already exists today.
ASST holds 19,863 BTC against roughly $783M of preferred stock sitting senior to the common.
That structure bakes about 2x leverage on Bitcoin into the residual equity, and it's already on the books.
Send Bitcoin back to its all-time high near $126k, a +109% move from here.
The preferred claim is fixed in dollars, so every leg higher in Bitcoin shrinks that claim in BTC terms.
Coverage that used to belong to the preferred quietly rolls down to the common.
Sats per share climb from 12,119 to 18,494, a 53% jump, while the company never touches the ATM or buys a single additional coin.
Hold the multiple flat at today's 1.59x mNAV. The implied share price still runs from $11.62 to $37.11.
That works out to +219% for ASST against Bitcoin's +109%, roughly double, exactly what the leverage on the books says it should be.
This needs no dilution, no premium expansion, and no heroic Bitcoin target beyond a price we've already printed before.
The bear case has to argue that 2x embedded leverage somehow stops working on the way back up.
Good luck putting math behind that one.
They also can't default. That means I am racing to acquire more ASST before the Bitcoin bull returns.
One Bitcoin in July 2016: $652. Today: $60,408. A 92.7x.
Now watch what that does to everything you were told was safe:
The S&P 500 is down 96.2% in Bitcoin terms. It cost 32.6M sats a decade ago. It costs 1.23M now.
Gold. Five thousand years of "store of value." Down 96.8%.
Silver, the other "real money." Down 96.9%.
Crude oil, the commodity that literally runs civilization. Down 98.3%.
These aren't cherry-picked altcoins. This is the foundation of every pension fund, every 60/40 portfolio, every "diversified" allocation a financial advisor has ever sold you.
Measured against hard money, all four are sitting in the basement.
This is exactly why I want to hold and acquire more Bitcoin for another 10 years:
Signal Timeline
PS
@Psyko_0x followed
Score breakdown0–100
🎯Scout quality
+16.5 / 25
📚Signal stack
0 / 30
🪪Profile
+14 / 15
✍️Content
+3 / 10
🤖AI verdict
+10 / 20
⚠️Penalties
-25 / 20
19
Below threshold (70)
Watching for additional signals.
Watching for additional signals.
Followers
83.7K
Account age
1.4y
Scouts
0
First seen
3d ago