@tsybka

The first month of summer is coming to its logical end. During this time, I managed to add more than $6k in profit, extending my streak to 6 consecutive profitable months. It was a rather "lazy month", which isn't surprising. In this heat, you don't really feel like trading, and there simply weren't many major events to trade. When there are no suitable markets, the best decision is to take a break and patiently wait for the right opportunities.

As I expected yesterday, without a significant surge in activity through the Strait, the Y-tards had very little chance. After the Iran-US confrontation, that scenario looks even less likely. The odds of 60+ ships transit continue to fall, and I'm closing my position for a $1k profit. Thanks, degens, for the liquidity. The kingdom's treasury keeps growing.

According to a statement by the UKMTO today, a tanker was attacked off the coast of Oman. This is already the second such incident in recent days. The Iran successfully targets shipping market immediately surged, but still retains some uncertainty, as the rules require a consensus that the targeted vessel was indeed attacked by Iran. Most likely, the market will resolve if one or two articles from major media outlets are published attributing the incident to Iran.

A newly minted degen has clearly had his fill of pro-ze propaganda, wasting no time throwing tens of thousands of dollars at the Putin Out and Recapture Crimea markets. His positions now total around $80k, and that's probably not the limit of his conviction. Against that backdrop, I've increased my Crimea NO position to roughly 70k shares.

Opened a NO position on the “60+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day” market. Bought roughly 1.7k shares at an average price of 64c. Despite all the claims that shipping traffic is returning to normal, with some pointing to nearly 70 ships over the past day, I remain skeptical. The resolution source, PortWatch, always significantly understates the numbers. Moreover, the recent news that a route near Oman had been approved by local authorities caused confusion in Iran, which completely rejected such a possibility, stating that it was unsafe. It is clear that Iran wants to control the strait on its own. It is possible that they may resort to closing the strait due to ongoing violations of their rules or military activity in Lebanon.