@tenad0me

thanks for playing https://t.co/QKD89ghgT7

There is a serious bug on @Kalshi where collateral return for owning NOs in 2 mutually exclusive brackets just doesn't work sometimes, even if it is enabled in settings. I currently have this problem in the Fed Chair market. I have a ton of Shelton NOs, but my balance decreases when I buy NOs on any of the other options. No response from @KalshiSupport and it's been 2 weeks. I also reported this back in November for the New Jersey Governor Election market and was told that maybe I just didn't have the setting on when I first traded the market (and apparently that gets locked in), but I've definitely had it on for close to a year. Incredibly frustrating when I have mid 6 figure positions and can't manage them in a capital efficient way.

I realize this is a sensitive topic, but I strongly believe that prediction markets on war are immensely valuable to society as a source of news that is far more truth-seeking, specific, and transparent than mainstream media operating under misaligned incentives. Media outlets maximize profits by saying the right words and invoking the right emotions to keep viewers hooked. Traders maximize profits by being right about the world. While news stories are rife with wishy-washy, hedged headlines that are hard to decipher, prediction markets output precise probabilities. Those probabilities form a legible track record that can be rigorously evaluated. People balk at the idea of betting on war, but there is already trillions of dollars in annual trading volume driven by geopolitical conflicts as that risk is rapidly priced into major markets. Prediction markets compact this information into a form that is much more digestible and meaningful to the average person than something like VIX futures prices. A common rebuttal is that prediction markets are inefficient. But their purpose isn’t to produce contrarian forecasts–it’s to aggregate information. Prices reflect the weighted beliefs of many informed participants, and those beliefs reflect how each participant weighs all available data. While media outlets flood people with noise, prediction markets give them a rough snapshot of what’s going on in seconds. And as sharper predictors win and increase their bet sizes over time, markets structurally become smarter.

first time watching this show #DWTS https://t.co/tkKZLFztdE

The biggest polymarket alpha @zscdao provides is a convenient list of slop posters to mute