@gammichan

Why is the Bitcoin logo in Final Fantasy 6?? https://t.co/0hBify95vN

I think one of the main investment themes of the coming years is going to be a closing of the K shaped economic spread. Many don't understand that in our current situation with so much debt, the high interest rates are actually stimulative. Specifically it's stimulative for those who already have money, and restrictive for those without. The US government spends more money on paying people interest than it does on defense, it's tossing out $1T every year and it's specifically giving it to people who already have money. When rates eventually lower that dynamic changes. Less free interest for those with money already BUT more available credit to those without money. Cheaper money for people to build real things again. There is also a sort of charge and discharge economic battery at work here as well, the financial markets keep sucking up more and more money, endless capex on AI, etc. Eventually that saturates and has to discharge back out into other places. Eventually we start to see the productivity boom of that capex, eventually part of the multi trillions in IPO money finds its ways into the pockets of the plumber installing the golden toilets in the latest billionaire's house. There's only so far you can oversaturate financial markets before it starts to effect "real" markets. Another way to look at this is simply that nature abhors a vacuum, spreads naturally close when whatever force driving it subsides. The K shaped economic spread should be no different and also close whenever the forces driving it subside. The question is when (when rates lower and the capex queens are saturated) and how to express that in trades (short financial assets, long real economy) The risk to this thesis is simply that those forces driving the K spread don't subside any time soon, that rates stay high, that money keeps getting re-plowed into financial assets, etc. But I think this is a low risk, Warsh wants lower rates (just not balance sheet expansion) and even though it's revolutionary, there's still only so many trillions that can be shoved into AI before returns diminish. We're already starting to see some real economic strength anyway, stronger ISM prints, the economy showing resilience by largely shrugging off the Iran war so far, etc.

One important thing I don't see being discussed much regarding oil price being a recession indicator is the relative impact of the price. When considering the price of something, you're leaving out half of the equation if you aren't also considering the available buying power. If the cost of the inputs to a company doubles but that company also has twice as much income, nothing really changed for them. Companies/people have A LOT more money now. Oil would have to go to like $300-400 to have the same impact as when it went to $150 in 2008. I don't think $100 oil is straining things as much as people seem to think it is.

If your chicken ain't this golden brown, get outta my town #cryptosoupgroup https://t.co/8l3Ibf2cAh

I'm suddenly a little less excited for my frozen pizza after opening it... https://t.co/NPRvD3mfZp