14
@TheOtherParker_
Parker
Skipped detailed analysis: Personal account of a crypto contributor/employee; bio indicates individual's work experience and views rather than a project/protocol/token to invest in.
AI Analysisneutral
Confidence
30%
Skipped detailed analysis: Personal account of a crypto contributor/employee; bio indicates individual's work experience and views rather than a project/protocol/token to invest in.
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Great perspective here. You need to zoom out beyond 1 day or week to get a cleaner picture.
I'm obviously a huge $BTC bull and think $BTC is the best asset long term, but for reduce vol, $STRC ($apyUSD for onchain) is a great instrument.
How strong is the $58k gang?
Now do you think there are no shorts, anon?
Listen. Learn. Get better. Do it faster than anyone else. That's how you win.
What did they clearly learn?
1. People want to see a cash buffer. Yeah, it's sub optimal (they should just buy BTC), but sometimes you have to give the people what they want.
2. The BTC needs to be used (or at least have the possibility to be used). This would mean for buybacks. This doesn't mean they are now a trading firm, but it does mean that if you're short, you might wake up one day and be completely obliterated, because Strategy has WAY more capital to deploy than you do.
Additionally, I would wager that their marketing is going to change somewhat. Ofc they will still shill $STRC hard, but will likely modify the language to a degree.
For the Strategy neophytes who don't understand why the $MSTR premium exists, mathematically, it's all a function of the leverage.
Let's take a simple example.
Company A has $1B of BTC, $500M of USD-denominated debt (or preferreds), and a common equity market cap of $500M . Therefore, the company is trading a 1x EV/NAV.
EV = Debt + Equity. NAV = Assets.
Now, supposed BTC doubles in price, such that Company A now has $2B of BTC, but still only $500M of USD-denominated debt or preferreds. If the common equity market cap stayed at $500M, then the EV/NAV would be 0.5x. Huge discount!
So, to keep the 1x EV/NAV in balance, the common equity market cap now needs to be $1.5B, such that EV would be $2B so that EV/NAV = 1x.
So that means the common equity went up 3x while BTC only went up 2x.
This is the simple math on how the leverage works.
But then why on earth would a DAT ever trade at a premium to 1x and not just trade in levered lockstep with BTC?
That's because of BTC-per-share growth.
If Strategy has been able to grow their BTC-per-share by double digits every year for the past few years, then if I buy MSTR today at 1x EV/NAV, and they grow BTC-per-share by 10% over the next 12 months, then it's as if I was buying MSTR at a 0.9x EV/NAV one year in the future. That's a great deal! So, investors are willing to pay a bit of a premium now for that future expectation.
It's no different than investors buying $SPCX. $SPCX does not have $2T in assets today, but they are expected to eventually have $2T in assets when their space data centers, etc all start kicking off so much in profits that the assets are actually worth $2T .
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