@0xWeiler

Blockworks acquired @MessariCrypto and as a result, Friday was my last day. Messari was the best job I've had. Getting to sharpen my thinking on Prediction Markets, DeFi, Stablecoins, Interop, and more alongside some of the brightest research minds in crypto every day was something I won't take for granted. The Messari Mafia is real, and I know the alumni network will keep driving thought leadership in the space long after the brand sunsets. Two people I want to call out specifically: @AvgJoesCrypto my Day 1 manager who taught me how to formulate and own a thesis, stay ahead of the curve across every corner of crypto, and lead by example. Set the bar for what top-tier research looks like. @KreiserMatt my more recent manager, a consummate professional and one of the sharpest business minds in a space flooded with noise. Taught me to build arguments from fundamentals and find the truth in writing. I'm a better analyst and writer for it. Too many others to name, but you know who you are. I'm actively looking for my next opportunity. DMs open.

1/ Everyone talks about Prediction Market Vol, but investors care about fees. I pulled the last 10 weeks of take rates across the major prediction markets to analyze which platforms have been earning the most fees per $ traded, and what that reveals about user fee sensitivity (since Polymarket launched platform-wide taker fees on Mar. 30): 1. @Kalshi - 2.55% ($340.4M fees) 2. Polymarket (US) - 1.84% ($26.2M fees) 3. @Polymarket - 1.12% ($68.1M fees) 4. @trylimitless - 1.11% ($7.5M fees)

Prediction Market volume (May 2026): 🥇- 1. @Kalshi - $17.9B (58%) 🥈- 2. @Polymarket - $8.8B (28%) 🥉- 3. @trylimitless - $1.7B (6%) 4. @predictdotfun - $1.1B (4%) 5. @opinionlabsxyz - $0.7B (2%) 6. Other - $0.9B (3%) Key observation: - Kalshi captured 58% of May volume, back-to-back months of majority share, and 9 straight months leading the category. The gap continues to widen. Other insights: - Sports + Exotics (Kalshi's combo/parlay product) combined for $15.3B, or 85% of Kalshi's monthly total. Crypto held as the #2 Kalshi category at $2.0B (11%). - Polymarket volume fell 13% MoM to $8.8B, its 2nd straight monthly decline. Polymarket US grew from $1.2B to $1.7B, so the drop is entirely on the DeFi International side. Likely due to a mix of: - fewer sports games as NHL/NBA seasons wind down - growing user frustration with market resolutions - Polymarket will bounce back, but stabilizing DeFi International has to be the priority. The US platform is doing its job. - Limitless grew 3% MoM to $1.7B, edging out PredictDotFun ($1.1B, -29% MoM) for the #3 platform spot. - @HyperliquidX (not pictured) hit $92M in its first month. Strong debut, and I expect it to take big leap in market share over the coming months.

1/ @1inch had a standout Q1'26 on @BNBCHAIN. Limit Order Protocol daily average volume grew 52.7% QoQ to $24.0 million, driven by the @OndoFinance partnership routing tokenized stock and ETF swaps through 1inch's Swap API since Dec. 5, 2025. 1inch is now execution infrastructure for tokenized RWA trading.

1/ @Optimism had a pivotal Q1'26. OP Labs launched OP Enterprise, managed infrastructure that lets institutions run dedicated chains without in-house blockchain ops. OP Enterprise plans to cut deployment timelines from 6-12 months → 8-12 weeks. 3 tiers: - Fully Managed - Self Managed - OP Mainnet. @unichain and @Celo onboarded as first customers. https://t.co/HqKyzxAKac